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Prediction for CME (2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-11T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23709/-1
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-14T01:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-02-11T04:18Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1700
Longitude (deg): E012
Latitude (deg): N26
Half-angular width (deg): 27

Notes: Low confidence in fit, due to shock and other CMEs leading to difficult analysis. Glancing arrival possible - mainly shock, rather than ejecta.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 34.28 hour(s)
Difference: -7.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-02-12T06:45Z

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